Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 4.136546 4.852722 5.645050 6.585113 7.668456 8.876148 10.322852
2025-09-14 2.982749 3.929052 5.089846 6.611407 8.545460 10.913233 14.022225
2025-09-21 2.268894 3.296696 4.671507 6.628474 9.322900 12.879507 17.902444
2025-09-28 1.793134 2.836582 4.340214 6.635921 10.016079 14.765545 21.886979
2025-10-05 1.602401 2.724173 4.445174 7.230740 11.565490 17.975217 28.063743
2025-10-12 1.378099 2.504954 4.336661 7.464142 12.581467 20.503975 33.525807
2025-10-19 1.202346 2.324416 4.247514 7.694385 13.595306 23.114129 39.374391
2025-10-26 1.029899 2.112159 4.062998 7.723915 14.263231 25.223921 44.628413
2025-11-02 0.854331 1.857247 3.756817 7.484697 14.423057 26.489103 48.593249
2025-11-09 0.696940 1.604833 3.410072 7.110882 14.278616 27.193585 51.640157
2025-11-16 0.594784 1.444844 3.212768 6.985322 14.562350 28.661275 56.149552
2025-11-23 0.515115 1.317133 3.058156 6.917190 14.937807 30.319080 61.146112
2025-11-30 0.472562 1.268239 3.066420 7.196132 16.056574 33.528619 69.446246
2025-12-07 0.417107 1.177378 2.968844 7.236663 16.697226 35.891549 76.382429
2025-12-14 0.368252 1.092465 2.870265 7.259444 17.301682 38.243456 83.530801
2025-12-21 0.325484 1.013929 2.772920 7.269031 17.875447 40.586285 90.882387
2025-12-28 0.321027 1.039825 2.935713 7.916630 19.953129 46.265986 105.633548
2026-01-04 0.297001 1.004510 2.937291 8.170650 21.154840 50.188155 117.031641
2026-01-11 0.275178 0.970920 2.937668 8.421062 22.376076 54.265709 129.122424
2026-01-18 0.247122 0.911555 2.858165 8.453193 23.072615 57.238462 139.054470
2026-01-25 0.212454 0.822294 2.679115 8.193107 23.011694 58.478489 145.223925
2026-02-01 0.178203 0.725370 2.459562 7.786568 22.523934 58.670643 149.012677
2026-02-08 0.156343 0.666273 2.342283 7.649987 22.721142 60.504428 156.774823